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Topic: Baht Falls as Thai Stocks Crash

The minutes today could offer good insight into just how close others are to voting for a hike, what it is they want to see before doing so and just how many voters are currently on the fence. We tend to have quite a good idea of all this from the large number of appearances we now get from Fed officials, but more information is always welcome and could spark some volatility in the markets. The latest officials to make an appearance will be William Dudley and Esther George, both of which are permanent voters on the FOMC, the latter of which was one of the three dissenters in September. Dudley is a close ally of Chair Yellen and previously suggested that the US is edging closer to the point at which a rate hike will be appropriate. It will be interesting to see if he believes sufficient progress has been made and whether he’s any closer to supporting a hike.

One of the few big moves in the markets this morning has been in the pound, which has experienced some reprieve having taken a hammering since the early hours of Friday morning. While the pound was arguably due a correction of some kind, we’re probably just seeing a little profit taking at the moment, triggered by Theresa May’s acceptance that Parliament should be allowed to vote on Brexit deal, something that’s seen as reducing the chance of a hard Brexit being imposed on the UK. That said, the concession was accompanied by a warning that it shouldn’t attempt to block or undermine the negotiating position of the government, with May determined to remain in full control of the talks. The gains are small in comparison to the losses incurred by the pound recently so I don’t think these comments have greatly altered people’s outlook for sterling.

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