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FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading at 114.33, down -0.25% on the day, having posted a daily high at 114.58 and low at 114.24.
USD/JPY came off following the initial rally upon the US jobs data and starts the week on the back foot with lost ground. The seven year high was made at the end of last week and the price penetrates key resistance through 115 there. This is significant and comes with large upside potential should the bulls manage to take control back.
Fundamentals are backing the pair on the bid side and technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, also explained while above 113.15/00 the market will remain immediately bid. However, she added that below 113.00 would initiate a deeper retracement to 112.00 possibly 110.67. “It will not encounter the accelerated uptrend until 109.91. Above 115.52, we have a cloud on the quarterly chart and Fibonacci extension to 116.07/10, then there is very little until the 120 level”.
USD/JPY noteworthy levels
With spot trading at 114.34, we can see next resistance ahead at 114.38 (Hourly 100 SMA), 114.58 (Daily High), 114.82 (Daily Classic PP) and 114.88 (Hourly 20 EMA). Support below can be found at 114.26 (Weekly Classic PP), 114.05 (Daily Classic S1) and 113.67.
Hungary sets mortgage relief conversion rate for FX loans
Hungary's banks will convert foreign currency debt into forints using the central bank's exchange rate set on November 7, the economy ministry announced late-Sunday, easing fears of a further squeeze on a hard-pressed banking sector.
Analysts had warned that a much lower exchange rate would have wiped out billions of euros worth of banking capital.
The government said the decision -- designed to make expensive foreign currency mortgages easier to pay back for troubled households -- was reached together with Hungary's Banking Association.
It also followed a recent decision by Hungary's Supreme Court that borrowers should also share the risk burden.
Last week the central bank (MNB (Other OTC: MNBC - news) ) said it would offer 9 billion euros ($11.2 billion) to commercial lenders from its reserves to neutralise the market impact of the conversion.
This would preserve the stability of the financial system and lessen impact on the forint's exchange rate, the MNB said in a statement.
Around a million Hungarians were left with skyrocketing repayments on some 10 billion euros of foreign-currency mortgages taken out before the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 as the national currency slumped.
Those loans were originally cheaper than forint-denominated debt, but as the currency has weakened it has made repaying them more expensive.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban, re-elected in April on a populist platform, has repeatedly tried to shift the loan burden onto the banking sector, which he accuses of enticing consumers with overly attractive loans.
As well as the forex loan conversion, under another new law, lenders will have to refund past fee and interest rate hikes on the loans.
Australian PM Abbott: Australian dollar at more comfortable level
Australian PM Abbott speaking in Beijing:
When the AUD was at US$1.05 it “did impose certain strains on our economy”
“The levels that we’ve seen it at in recent months are probably more comfortable for more people”
“But nevertheless it is a market-driven currency. Let’s see where the market takes it.”
UPDATE 1-China, South Korea 'effectively' conclude free trade deal
Euro Eyes ECB Bond-Buying Results, US Dollar Drops to Start the Week
Talking Points:
US Dollar Drops to Start the Week as Asia Reacts to Disappointing Payrolls
Euro Looks to ECB Covered Bond Purchase Results for Direction Guidance
BOE Governor Carney May Stoke Japanese Yen and British Pound Volatility
The US Dollar underperformed to start the week, tracking Treasury bond yields as Asian markets took their turn to react to last week’s disappointing Employment figures. The report showed a 214,000 payrolls increase in October, disappointing expectations calling for a 235,000 gain and hinting the Federal Reserve may move slower to issue its first post-QE3 interest rate hike.
Looking ahead, the European Central Bank is in spotlight as it reports the size of last week’s covered bond purchases. The first week of the program saw a mere €1.7 billion in uptake, which the markets seemed to judge as far too small to meaningfully counter deflationary pressure in the currency. With that in mind, a similar outcome this time around would suggest the ECB may be aiming to make a habit of this tepid pace, which might boost the Euro. Alternatively, a noticeably larger effort stands to weigh on the single currency.
Also of note, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at a press briefing in Basel ahead of the Brisbane G20 summit. Commentary touching on global growth trends at large may carry implications for risk appetite and sentiment-sensitive currencies including the Japanese Yen (with dour rhetoric set to boost the safe-haven unit, and vice versa). Signs of increased worry about spillover effects from a hobbled Eurozone economy may likewise punish the British Pound amid ebbing BOE rate hike bets.
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