AUD overvalued with respect to NZD - ANZ
Topic: AUD overvalued with respect to NZD - ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sam Tuck, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ notes AUD being overvalued with respect to NZD and sees the excessive AUD strength against NZD as an opportunity to purchase NZD for the short term.
“We would prefer to own AUD over NZD on any retracement of the AUD strength. However, global events (USD, global commodity prices, and China) are driving currency markets and thus impacting both AUD and NZD relatively equally.”
“We would view excessive AUD strength against NZD as an opportunity to purchase NZD for the short term, despite our preference to own AUD on weakness.”
“This cross is trading at fair value according to our cyclical measures. Fundamental factors ostensibly point to AUD being overvalued with respect to NZD, but declines in NZ economic indicators have not yet fed into the quarterly indicators that drive our fundamental fair value estimates, implying that fair value will correct to spot, rather than spot correcting.”