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USD/CAD broader trend remains bullish – TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, the broader term trend for USD/CAD is still in view for the coming year, and suggests buying on dips during modest USD softness.
“USDCAD price action has looked outright negative on occasion —yesterday was one of them—from a technical perspective; it’s hard to read too much into negative price signals in a declining market—they rather emphasize the trend than anything else—but the net selling does suggest steady interest to pick up CAD on weakness—something that was evident in October as well.”
“We don’t think the broader trend up in the USD is at risk at this point—in fact, bullish USDCAD is one of our key themes for the coming year—but heightened volatility and some, modest corrective USD softness may feature in the run in to the turn of the year. We would rather look to buy the dip.”
“We don’t expect the Canadian inflation to drive that much movement in the CAD today; it is pretty clear from the BoC’s recent communications that it is in no rush to raise rates and inflationary pressures are expect to remain moderate in the next few months.”
“Focus will remain on crude with today’s pop high breaking the recent trend of price declines—note the tightening correlation between the CAD and WTI on our correlation matrix—and option expiries at 10ET. Most strikes are concentrated in the low/mid 1.12 area and that may be the magnet zone for funds mid-morning.”
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