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Pound at Risk as BOE Inflation Report Threatens Dovish Tone Shift
Talking Points:
British Pound Vulnerable if BOE Inflation Report Marks Dovish Tone Shift
NZ Dollar Gained as RBNZ Rhetoric Proved Supportive for Rates Outlook
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The release of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report is in focus in European trading hours. The publication has evolved into the central vehicle for announcing changes in UK monetary policy over recent years. With that in mind, traders will be keen to gauge the evolution of thinking on the rate-setting MPC committee vis-à-vis the timing of the first post-crisis interest rate hike considering the latest downturn in UK economic news-flow.
Indeed, data from Citigroup reveals that economic data outcomes have dramatically deteriorated since mid-September, with realized results trailing median forecasts by the largest margin in 18 months. If this produces a dovish lean in the central bank rhetoric – especially if such a shift is couched in a downgrade to growth and inflation forecasts – investors may punish the British Pound amid speculation that tightening is farther away than conventional wisdom envisions. As it stands, futures pricing implies the first increase in the benchmark lending rate by June 2015.
The New Zealand Dollar narrowly outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said he sees a risk of resurgence in house-price inflation and will not relax mortgage lending limits for the time being, adding that rates may need to rise again “in the coming years”. The Kiwi’s advance tracked an upswing in New Zealand’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the RBNZ chief’s remarks proved supportive for policy expectations.
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